A senior disease expert has warned that hundreds of people in the next 20 years can die in the prevalence of measles in the next 20 years unless vaccination rates improve dramatically.
According to the London Imperial College modeling, non -vaccinated infants under 12 months make up a significant proportion of 480 avoidable deaths over the next two decades.
Katrina Huck, a professor of health economics and vice president of the university’s comprehensive institute, who was in charge of the study, said that two important cases could be the result of the additional 390,000 based on the vaccination rate of about 90 %.
The current vaccination rate for the two doses needed to protect against a highly contagious disease is about 85 %.
The warning was “severely sick” after the death of a child and several others at the Al -Liverpool Children’s Hospital after the measles’ contraction, “only a few days after health officials warned of rising cases due to non -wax patients.”
The Royal College of Follow -up and Health of Children said the British vaccination rate was “very worrying” and has called on governments across the UK to “act immediately” to reverse the process.
Researchers have estimated that hospitalized and losing productivity because people are unable to work due to measles can be 290 million pounds over 20 years.
This modeling is a worst scenario because it does not assume that the increase in vaccination will increase and that health officials will not take any action to improve the rate in the event of a prevalence.
It also assumes that 3 % of those who are vaccinated are anti -vaccinated. However, several officials said Independent The reasons for non -vaccination are different, and a significant portion of those who are not because parents do not have access to or prioritized it.
Since 1989, less than five people have died each year from measles, but experts have warned that cases will increase if healing.
Professor Steve Turner, from the Royal College of Paediatrics and Children’s Health, said more work needs to be done to improve the vaccination rate.
She said. ” [measles] It creates a significant risk for everyone, putting a lot of pressure on health care now as well as our economy. The physician is particularly concerned about the current outbreak of measles in the UK. Measles can be prevented by certainly vaccination. “
The first dose of measles and measles vaccine (MMR) in children 2 years in the UK is 85.6 % and the second dose absorption at the age of 85.5 %. This is below 95 % that the World Health Organization (WHO) says it is essential for achieving and maintaining elimination.
The UK Health Security Agency, which prevents diseases and responds to diseases, warned in 2023 that cases in London could lead to a prevalence of between 40,000 and 160,000 cases if the vaccination rate, which was 74 % for both doses, did not improve.
The latest vaccination rate from January 2025 to March 2025 shows that the figure is only down to 70 percent.
In 2023-24, the British NHS launched a campaign nationwide for MMR vaccination for those lost, which also performed 180,000 extra vaccination.
Dr. Vanessa Seliba said the 2023 UKHSA forecasts are still valid because the vaccination rate is still a concern.
“You can argue about the size of its outbreak, we all agree that you want to see the prevalence of the prevalence,” he said. “It is not surprising that we are seeing it right now, so it is very important that we work as a system to reverse that process … If the vaccine coverage is below 95 %, we will see potential and death.”
Dr. Saliba said Britain has never met WHO goals for measles, so the current outbreak was not unexpected. The agency has created the MMR JAB program to allow children to receive it in 18 months instead of three years of age in trying to enhance the recruitment.
UKHSA said the forecasts of the imperial college research should be treated with caution because they think no action is taken by health officials after the outbreak, which does not happen.
Professor Hawk said the poor absorption of the vaccine is due to a wide range of topics such as, problems with access to primary care services, as well as misguided information. “Past medical accidents and poor communication of vaccination benefits have also caused vaccine in some areas, including parts of the UK,” he said.
He said interventions that can include information campaigns, open access to vaccination and build trust in officials.
However, Professor Hawk stated that it should be “discussing” and doing vaccinated taxes on actions, such as compulsory vaccination, which exists in other countries.
Azeem Majeed, Professor of Public Health and Public Health at Imperial College, said the modeling highlights “serious public health consequences” about the permission to cover vaccination beneath the optimal level.
“In a” unchanged “scenario, covering about 90 %, the population is vulnerable to large -scale prevalence every few years, because the number of people is created over time and the main message to be taken requires high vaccine cover.”
“The exact number of cases depends on the assumptions, and the government and NHS response to the outbreak reduces the total number of infections and deaths,” he said.
