English phrases once bothered Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro so much that he urged his State of the Union audience to drop words like skate park and fashion.
But while the White House now ponders whether the U.S. military should invade Venezuela, Maduro embraces English, sings John Lennon’s Imagine, advocates peace and dances to a remix of his last English catchphrase, “No War, Yes Peace.”
While supporters of Venezuela’s political opposition, whose leaders have repeatedly told supporters in Washington that the threat of military action will crush Maduro’s inner circle, are seen as a sign of desperation, months of pressure remain for secession or government change.
Loyalty versus punishment
Behind this knack for staying in power is a system that harshly punishes unfaithful partners and allows loyal ministers, justices, military leaders, and other officials to enrich themselves.
“The Bolivarian revolution has a remarkable ability: the capacity for cohesion in the face of external pressure,” said Ronal Rodríguez, a researcher at the Venezuela Observatory at Colombia’s Universidad del Rosario, referring to the political movement, also known as Chavismo, that Maduro inherited from the late president Hugo Chávez. When pressure comes from outside, they manage to unite, defend themselves and protect themselves.”
Underlying the principle of loyalty or punishment are the networks of corruption that Chávez and Maduro have blessed, allowing loyalists to get richer. The policy has plagued previous attempts to oust Maduro and helped him and his close associates scrap economic sanctions, receive a presidential pardon and claim victory in an election they narrowly lost.
Jail and torture can be part of the sentence, which is usually more severe for criminal defendants with military affiliations, Rodriguez explained. This strategy has been crucial for an authoritarian Maduro to maintain control of the military, which allows him to smuggle drugs, oil, wildlife and thousands of other goods in exchange for anti-coup garrisons.
“It has been a very effective tool because Chavismo has always been able to eliminate those actors who at some point try to insurrection, and it has been able to expose the corrupt practices of all kinds of actors,” Rodriguez said.
The army stands by Maduro
Venezuela’s political opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado, had backed the military to oust Maduro after credible evidence showed he had lost the 2024 presidential election. But Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López and other military leaders stood by Maduro, just as they did during a 2019 mutiny by a cadre of soldiers loyal to opposition leader Juan Guaido, who was then recognized by the first Trump administration as Venezuela’s rightful leader.
Since returning to power, US President Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on Maduro and his allies, including by doubling the reward to $50 million for information leading to his arrest on terrorism charges. A 2020 indictment accused Maduro of leading the de los Soules cartel, which the US State Department designated as a foreign terrorist organization on Monday.
Maduro denies the accusations.
Trump said on Saturday that the airspace “up and around” the South American country should be considered “totally closed.” Maduro’s government responded by accusing Trump of a “colonial threat” and rallying supporters behind what it called an attack on national sovereignty.
Suspected drug boats were bombed
In early September, the US military began blowing up boats the Trump administration accused of carrying drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, killing more than 80 people.
Many, including Maduro himself, see the US military’s actions as an attempt to end Chavismo’s power. The opposition has only added to this impression by renewing its promise to remove Maduro from office.
Two weeks after the first boat attack, Chavismo’s loyalty was directly tested when Maduro’s pilot rejected U.S. efforts to join a plot to capture the Venezuelan leader and hand him over to face charges.
“We Venezuelans are cut from a different cloth,” Bitner Villegas, a member of the presidential honor guard, wrote to a retired US officer who was trying to recruit him. The last thing we are are traitors.
On Tuesday, supporters of the ruling party marched in Caracas to demonstrate what they described as the “anti-imperialist spirit” of Chavismo. The march ended in a ceremony in which Maduro held up a jeweled sword that belonged to South American independence hero Simón Bolívar and led participants, including cabinet ministers, to swear in the name of God to defend peace and freedom.
Suzanne Shirk, a research professor at the University of California, San Diego, said authoritarian leaders have a “fetish for unity” and like public displays of loyalty to bridge the gap between leadership and social change. He explained that division can lead people to believe that the risk of protest has decreased.
“We must stay united”
US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has said that the designation of the de los Soules cartel gives Trump more options for dealing with Maduro. Hexett did not elaborate on those options, but government officials have indicated they have difficulty seeing a situation in which Maduro remains in power as an acceptable end game.
David Smild, a Tulane University professor who has studied Venezuela for more than three decades, said the only people who don’t understand Chavismo think that a show of power will change the government.
“That’s exactly what unites them,” Smild said of the deployment of U.S. military forces. They also talk about a $50 million reward, but what military officer in his right mind would trust the US government? And in general, if the whole premise of the operation is that the Venezuelan armed forces are a drug cartel, what incentive could they possibly have to turn Maduro and participate in regime change?
Maduro’s entire presidency has been accompanied by a political, social and economic crisis that has driven millions into poverty and forced more than 7.7 million people to emigrate. The crisis has also reduced support for the ruling party across the country.
Loyal to keeping his inner circle intact despite growing U.S. pressure, Maduro is also seeking to maintain his dwindling base through long-term tactics that include organizing rallies in the capital.
Zenaida Quintero, a school porter, has vivid memories of the severe food shortages that Venezuela experienced in the late 2010s as the country ravaged the country under Maduro. However, his support for Maduro has not wavered, and his commitment boils down to one fact: Chávez chose him to lead the Bolivarian Revolution.
Quintero, 60, said Maduro, like Chavez, will not abandon his supporters.
“I trust him,” Quintero said of Maduro. We must remain united. We have to defend ourselves.”
